Whee… down another 26 slots yesterday. Here we go!
I smoke the Learn & Earn questions for $10K and only miss one on the box office comparisons so I’m up $18K–chump change, but fun to start the day. After a quick scan of yesterday’s IPOs (Joel Edgerton’s StarBond is only up 13 cents? Really?), I check my short positions, but nothing looks Earth-shattering.
The shifts in yesterday’s positions is a little more telling. Skank Robbers is a Jamie Foxx vehicle (written by and starring) with Martin Lawrence about their two characters in drag who, yeah, rob banks. The stock slipped three bucks yesterday (11%) and I’m not sure why especially since Foxx is money at the box office and there is already a release date in 2011. Those kinds of dates aren’t written on stone tablets and sent from above, but if Jamie wants a release date in late summer, so be it.
Cartel, a thriller with Josh Brolin in the daddy-done-wrong role, sinks 7% and is now only $3 above its IPO price a year ago. Brolin is hot right now and with roles in the Wall Street sequel, Jonah Hex and True Grit with the Coen Brothers all coming up, I can’t see him stopping for a non-descript thriller so I dump my position.
On the positive side, Hanna is shooting now with Saoirse Ronan. I love this kid and think we’re going to watch her for a few more decades. Hanna rockets up 13% yesterday, and I’m glad I held the stock.
Today’s IPOs include Criminal Empire for Dummies. Get this cast: Milo Ventigmilia, Malin Akerman, Gary Oldman, Michael Clarke Duncan and Harvey Keitel. I don’t know how to direct, and I could direct that cast. It’s got a spotty future, especially with distribution as near as I can see, but I’m betting on the cast and what will be comfortable, familiar trailers for previews.
Other new films include Growing Up, a look at a kid in a family where the parents will divorce. Ethan Hawke and Patricia Arquette star, but I’m not dazzled by anything yet so it’s a pass for me at $12. Oliver Stone’s documentary about Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, South of the Border, is due out in 2 months and should get enough arthouse traffic to warrant a $2 gamble.
The only other offering really remarkable today is a $20 option on the opening of Chris Rock’s Death at a Funeral. The price is slick because it will open at $30 million or $8 million, and I can’t get a good read on that except for Rock’s past. He rocks kids films and franchises, but he rarely, if ever, carries a film’s opening weekend. But it’s not worth the bucks for the minimal return here. I would call the option at $10 or put at $30, but I’m not going anywhere at $20.
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suemillinocket
Two things:1) I will never, ever see anything containing Martin Lawrence in drag. Just on principal. Jamie Foxx may be good box office, but Lawrence is poison. My guess for the future of that film is EPIC […] Read MoreTwo things:1) I will never, ever see anything containing Martin Lawrence in drag. Just on principal. Jamie Foxx may be good box office, but Lawrence is poison. My guess for the future of that film is EPIC FAIL.2) Criminal Empire for Dummies does have a fab cast, with the exception of Milo Ventimiglia's very weird, crooked mouth. Seriously, I'm distracted by it every time I see him talk. The movie may succeed despite this, but I will remain annoyed.Also, I doubt Death at a Funeral is going to do much in the long run (see: Martin Lawrence), but it might have an okay opening weekend simply because there's not too much else to see. But I think Kick Ass will, in fact, kick its ass and Date Night may slaughter them both. Read Less